“End the Dominance of the Uyghur Ethnic Group”: An Analysis of Beijing’s Population Optimization Strategy in Southern Xinjiang

Executive Summary

Dr. Adrian Zenz is one of the world’s leading scholars on People’s Republic of China (PRC) government policies towards the country’s western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. In 2017-2018, Dr. Zenz’s analysis played a significant role in bringing to light the Chinese government’s campaign of repression and mass internment directed against ethnic Uyghur persons in Xinjiang (China Brief, September 21, 2017; China Brief, May 15, 2018; China Brief, November 5, 2018). Dr. Zenz has testified before the U.S. Congress about state exploitation of the labor of incarcerated Uyghur persons (CECC, October 17, 2019). Previous research by Dr. Zenz has uncovered the existence of two parallel yet distinct large-scale, state-sponsored coercive labor transfer programs in Xinjiang, which target the “graduates” of vocational internment camps and unemployed rural surplus laborers, respectively (Journal of Political Risk, December 10, 2019; Newlines Institute, December 14, 2020).

In this report, Dr. Zenz provides evidence about the genocide being conducted against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang by the Chinese Community Party. This article has been accepted for publication in Central Asian Survey, published by Taylor & Francis.

Abstract

Chinese academics and politicians in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region have argued that the region’s “terrorism” problem can only be solved by “optimizing” southern Xinjiang’s ethnic population structure. High Uyghur population concentrations are deemed a national security threat. “Optimizing” such concentrations is achieved by embedding substantial Han populations. Scenarios that do not overburden the region’s population carrying capacity entail drastic reductions in ethnic minority natural population growth. The intent to “optimize” the population serves as a basis to assess the intent to destroy an ethnic minority population in part, as outlined in the 1948 U.N. Genocide Convention. The “destruction in part” is assessed as the difference between projected natural population growth without substantial government interference, and reduced growth scenarios in line with population “optimization” requirements. Based on population projections conducted by Chinese researchers, this difference could range between 2.6 and 4.5 million persons by the year 2040.